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Cake day: June 11th, 2023

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  • If a die is weighted, the first roll is no longer 1/6 probability to get a 7

    Yes, actually, it is. No matter what the first die lands on, there is a 1 in 6 chance that the second die will land on the corresponding value necessary for a “7”. You could glue the first die to the table with “6” (or any other number) showing, and there will be a 1 in 6 chance that the second die will bring the sum to 7.

    Weighting one die (to favor “6”) will increase the probability of every outcome over 7, and will decrease the probability of every outcome under 7, but the probability of rolling a 7 will not change.










  • If she is still financially reliant on her parents, you should abide by her wishes on the subject. You should not consider it a reflection of her relationship with you. She is doing what she needs to do to survive and thrive.

    Eventually, she might choose to rely on you for financial support. But, you could be killed in a traffic accident, and she would still be dependent on their support. Even after you are supporting her financially, she still needs to do what she needs to maintain her relationship with them.

    You should not consider her relationship with her parents to be a reflection on your relationship until she is capable of supporting herself, independent of both you and them.

    Until then, she is being coerced, to some degree or another, and you should consider that coercion when evaluating her behavior.







  • The risk of a mishap is greatest on takeoff and landing. Inflight mishaps are extremely rare.

    A “flight” is one takeoff and one landing. The largest aircraft have the longest duration flights. They might be airborne 12+ hours at a time. They might fly fewer than 10 flights a week.

    Small commercial aircraft flying local and regional routes might be shorter than an hour. These aircraft might have 70 flights a week.

    A student pilot in the smallest, single-engine GA aircraft might spend all day shooting touch-and-goes to build time and experience. Each touch-and-go is a landing-and-takeoff. These aircraft might have 300 “flights” a week.

    Yes, the smallest aircraft are going to have the highest per-airframe mishap rate, simply because they experience the most risky phases of flights much more frequently than large aircraft.

    Per-flight, the risks aren’t significantly different.