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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 16th, 2023

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  • This is liberal cope.

    I’ve seen tons of Bernie people from 2016 become Trupists. Several have become full-on groypers. The reason is clear: Bernie got curbstomped and these people are still looking for some other solution because they’re still precarious.

    Liberals are still clinging to the basket of deplorables. They want to think that not being a liberal is a moral failing, or a sign of weak breeding or something. They can’t admit that all the punching left they’ve been doing over decades while scolding, preening, etc and sucking up to corporate elites they serve has created the terrifying right-wing moment that we’re in. And they’ll going to be smugly declaring themselves to be on the right side of history as they get thrown into the camps with the rest of us.

    EDIT: by the way:

    Leor completed her PhD as a Gates Scholar at the Department of Psychology

    Yes, that is the “Gates” you’re thinking of.

    Also she’s probably a criminal:

    Leor was listed on Forbes 30 Under 30















  • but if we look at the countries on this planet that are the most successful in terms of economics, equality, personal freedom, human rights, etc. then we find countries that made it work through regulation and strong government institutions

    Yeah that’s socialism. The best societies were all degrees of socialist, this includes western Europe and the USA at its mid-century peak. These societies all had aggressive, borderline confiscatory progressive taxation, large scale government intervention in the economy (in the US especially aggressive anti-trust), a generous social welfare state, and a large and professionalized civil service.

    They also had large and well-organized labor unions capable of wielding power on behalf of their members and disrupting plans of the elites.

    Remove those things and you quickly slide into a dystopian fascist nightmare state as the US and parts of Europe like the UK are discovering.



  • There even isn’t much panic about being caught on the street to be conscripted

    Because Russia hasn’t mobilized besides the “partial mobilization” in 2022. The question is why. One theory is that they don’t need to. The other theory is that they can’t. I live in the US and remember the Iraq war. In 2004 one of the biggest things going around was that Bush was going to start conscription.

    But if he were to have attempted mobilization the support for the war in the US would have instantly collapsed so instead he tried various things to fill the ranks like using mercenaries, “backdoor drafts” via stoploss, activating national guard, etc. And in the end, let’s be honest, the US lost both of Bush’s wars.


  • It’s easy to look at the side of a war of attrition where you have more information and say that they’re losing because you don’t have as much information on the other side. Russia has every reason to present itself as still having massive reserves to call upon because it helps their case.

    Many people thought that Germany was on the cusp of winning WWI during the spring offensive in 1918.

    That being said I think Ukraine’s situation isn’t great. I was surprised at the seeming depth of the Russia’s reserves. They have been sustaining incredible losses for the last year almost, and yet continue to advance. During previous phases of the war we saw them overextend themselves and then have to retreat against Ukrainian advances.

    Russia’s reserves are finite both in terms of manpower and equipment. They are demonstrating strain in both categories and will presumably start to have sustainment issues soon. If Ukraine can hold together and stop the advance then presumably the next phase would be a negotiated peace hopefully. There’s always a chance that some shoe could drop though. Putin could die or get overthrown, the west could withdraw all support, China could start providing blank-check support to Russia, Russia could successfully go into full-mobilization mode.


  • Every time there’s an AI hype cycle the charlatans start accusing the naysayers of moving goalposts. Heck that exact same thing was happing constantly during the Watson hype. Remember that? Or before that the Alpha Go hype. Remember that?

    I was editing my comment down to the core argument when you responded. But fundamentally you can’t make a machine think without understanding thought. While I believe it is easy to test that Watson or ChatGPT are not thinking, because you can prove it through counterexample, the reality is that charlatans can always “but actually” those counterexamples aside by saying “it’s a different kind of thought.”

    What we do know because this at least the 6th time this has happened is that the wow factor of the demo will wear off, most promised use cases won’t materialize, everyone will realize it’s still just an expensive stochastic parrot and, well, see you again for the next hype cycle a decade from now.