Russia won’t ask for this deal. This was what they had in 2014. Would they have not started the fu scale invasion, they would have Crimea still, and the West would still think Russia is reasonable. They started the war to get the dombass fully, to put a puppet on the government, and to make a safe zone around the sea.

What you’re suggesting would mean the war was entirely useless to russia, which I doubt they can afford to settle for.

At some point you can be antiwar all you like it’s not in your hands. In this case it’s puttin that need to be antiwar, and as long as he isn’t, Ukraine or Europe cannot be antiwar. It’s sad, but a harsh reality. You need peaceful neighbors to be at peace.

Crimea is easier to take back than the dombass. Realistically, the dombass will be almost impossible to take back by force, but Crimea is a very realistic objective, although it’s also the most precious to russia.

Saying that Ukraine should forget about Crimea is saying that Ukraine should abandon all territories held by Russia today.

That’s been dismantled already. He already tried it and failed. EU managed to work something that doesn’t need Hungary approval to be done. It was a small step toward confederacy, which is is a nice turn of event if you ask me.

I’m not sure Europe can make F35 parts for example, which will not fly for long without it, or ammunitions for various US weapons. I hope it’ll be a wake up call to make and use EU instead.

No. I mean the weapons they have now. F35 for example. If a war happens in Europe, will those planes be useful without US support and authorizations? US can do a lot of harm to Europe with that.

The biggest thing will be all those nato countries who can’t do anything with their US weapons if the US says so.

I see two reasons for Russia to accept a cease fire : they are happy with what they took and want to keep it, so a cease fire is better because there is no treaty to give back anything ; or they want a bit of time to rebuild their supply of ammo and equipment before they go back at it.

The first one would be if the US continue to support Ukraine. It would make it like the west is now supporting the war while Russia is asking for peace (totally hypocritical of course). Russia could stand on its positions and solidify them if it’s accepted. If Ukraine continue the war, it’ll be Ukraine on the offensive, which is a harder position.

The second one would be if Ukraine loses US support and ask for a cease fire after the dombass is fully taken. Russia wouldn’t be armed to take it to rebuild it’s supply before going again. The risk here would be that nato or UN send forces in Ukraine, and if Europe take this time to increase its weapon production too, but those are unlikely on a short term.

My guess would be that they wa’t to settle the frontiers as far as they possibly can to keep as much territory as possible with a cease fire that can become a frozen frontier. If Harris wins, they can ask for a cease fire, and then will the US and Europe deny it? If Trump wins, Russia can probably take the whole dombass rapidly before accepting a cease fire from Ukraine.

It’s all speculation though.

I’ve seen a video about an ammunition being developed to be adapted to the underbarrel grenade launcher. Problem is that it needs to be ready if you any chance at it, and you only have one chance.

Second problem is that most Russian soldiers are barely trained and equipped anyway, they’re just litteral canon fodder. Elite troops certainly have something to fight drones, but I suspect jamming would be the first layer. The video we see are most probably against the canon fodder.

Russians don’t care much about friendly fire.

Well, they’re probably killed if they refuse the order. And more importantly even, their family and relatives are probably threatened too.

They’re dead the moment they sign for the job. And they probably discover it rather fast.

Your mistake is to consider an election is a rational competition. It’s not. Not anymore, because medias make it impossible to know the truth. So it is more like a football match. People have the team they support, and for most nothing will change their mind because there’s too much propaganda. When almost everything is propaganda, you get to choose the reality you “prefer”.

So the point of the campaign is more about convincing people to vote in order to defeat the opposing team. Or to persuade the other team to concede.

In supreme commander it’s Air Superiority Fighter, ASF. Acronyms are a plague if you intend any non specialist to understand anything though.

For the first, it can be women too. For misogyny it’s harder. But there is a trend currently to attract and radicalise women into conservatism too. The trad wives movement. I don’t remember the names but there are movement for spirituality and naturalism that are also linked to trad wives. That is also a slippery slope : first you hook them spirituality, and at the end you have JK Rowling who is an anti-trans activist.

Women and men are not in the same groups simply because conservatives are misogynistic so they like to separate men and women.

Overall it is a culture war lead by the far right.

It’s a slippery slope. First it’s either a community they can share anything with, or it is a subject dear to them that they see people give solution to. Then, slowly, one idea at a time, they get litteraly corrupted. Ideas are imprinted through repetition, values are suggested. Then, or before, you imprint the idea that the others are lying. This is key because it seed doubt in everything, but as he is closer from this group, this group get to imprint its own ideas through repetition alone. Distance is built with relatives so that the group is the only group he has. Then if he starts to disagree, he will be kicked, sometimes also punished, and he’ll be left alone, or at least he must be convinced of it. Once there radicalisation is a process that’s hard to stop.

Doubt, distrust, and a group to be with are the key ingredients. Liberalism is a fertile ground for this because it promotes individualism when humans are social creatures. So it’s very easy to find people in need of a social group that gives belonging. And racism makes the easiest pretense : you belong because of your blood, or because you’re born here.

For sexism, it’s mostly a reactionary backlash, and secondly this liberalism problem of promoting individualism to humans who seek belonging. Feminism did won, and the old way of treating women is being addressed. But it is a process, and while we know what’s bad, we don’t have much new examples to follow. Yet most people have been trained in the old way, so now they are at lost. It’s not the first reason why they’re alone, liberalism has this place, but it is far easier to blame it on women and feminism than to try to build a new society. And also, it again gives them belonging with men like them that understands them and give explanations and solutions to their problems. Not good ones, but that’s not the point.

The truth is that war kills people. And Russia started this war. Russia can stop it. Those are hard facts. As hard as the sun is yellow and bright in the day, and the earth is a sphere orbiting the sun. That’s not propaganda.

Propaganda is your bullshit pretending that saying the sun is yellow and the earth a sphere are points of view you are free to disagree with.

I’ve heard rumors of a planned attack against Ukraine in this region. This move prevents it.

As other said, it also makes Putin look like a clown, increase the cost of the war for Russia (they have their own refugees now who will spread the word of how Russia is invaded for the first time since ww2), allows to take prisoners and equipment, give control over a gas pipeline so they can pressure Austria and Hungary, forces Russia to move troups and equipment away from the Dombass, improves the moral in Ukraine with victories and humiliating Russia.

Strategically, the only drawback for Ukraine is that they are in a position of invading force in some way, which may make some allies or international opinions a bit uncomfortable. But the whole list of positives has the potential to change the war.

That’s how you catch fascists.

I’ve seen a paper saying that in Afghanistan amputee were 10% or wounded.

It’s hard to tell in Ukraine. The casualty rate for Russian is probably extremely high in the areas where they send meat waves one after the others. And for people to be disabled, they need to survive first.

But it’s very hard to make a stat over the whole war. I wouldn’t be surprised if 30% were dead and 20% disabled.

For after the war you need to add the trauma on top though. Even the able survivors will be psychologically scarred for life.