• 3 Posts
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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 6th, 2023

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  • I’m too early in the game to know this well, but I feel the lack of mod support. This feels like a game that would really thrive with community support, but they have no plans on supporting mods or open sourcing it. They are currently working on a new project that they haven’t elaborated on yet.

    Still, I got this game for $14 and if I can find some people to play with I’m absolutely going to get my money’s worth - this kind of game just doesn’t exist with this level of depth. I love the technical detail of how the ship works on and how the systems interact with each other.




  • This is not answering your question (I can’t argue for my current SWR, it’s the trinity study minus a random fudge factor), but I’ve implemented an idea that I think others would benefit from.

    I’ve been tracking my current withdrawal rate through time, based on my periodic calculation of baseline expenses. I suppose I could use actual expenses, but that’s remarkably volatile, so instead I take the 6 month average of recurring costs.

    The benefit is a nice time series graph I can watch. I can plot a horizontal line for my current expected return on capital, and another for my safe withdrawal rate.

    The net result is a lot of information condensed nicely. You can see at a glance if you’re trending towards safety, or away from it.





  • isosphere@beehaw.orgOPtoFinance@beehaw.orgThe Wicked Problem of Trading
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    1 year ago

    I spent a lot of time learning from traders, and learning statistics. Most folks in trading use misleading profit and loss metrics to see if something is worth trading. I used the same kind of backtests, but I layered Bayesian inferencing on top of it.

    I studied machine learning with Andrew Ng’s courses, studied deep learning with Ian Goodfellow’s book. Most importantly I took a course run by university professor and researcher in anthropology, Richard McElreath. I did my best to faithfully apply what I learned, though I am sure I strayed from academic standards.

    At that point I had been doing this for years, for countless hours. It was my only hobby, and I dive hard into hobbies.

    I tried my damnedest to be predictive every which way. I kept meticulous records to avoid fooling myself. Sometimes my models fooled me, and sometimes they combined with luck for my records to fool me. Long term, it’s pretty clear. No evidence of any edge, ever, for any approach taken.

    At the end of all of this toil and labour, I have the skills I learned along the way: statistical skepticism, a hands-on understanding of fat tails, an appreciation for the experience of randomness and the highs and lows of gambling. I think that’s worth a lot - but I also think you can learn that a lot easier some other way.

    I have done very well with buy and hold, it’s fantastic. There’s some bullshit in how you assign your portfolio - what proportions of what exposures - but its very profitable and exceptionally low stress compared to trading. It definitely has a better Sharpe/sortino/ulcer metric.




  • Yikes. Can you imagine a more soul-crushing job than making marketing posters for the most boring soup possible?

    I imagine it goes something like this:

    Jim, we’ve got some ad space. Malls across the world. You’re going to use that as a canvas to sell tomato soup. People love tomato soup. Sells itself, by itself. Don’t show a grilled cheese near it - we don’t sell those and lets face it, tomato soup is not the arm candy in that pairing. Oh, and have fun with it! We’re a family. Please have it done by Sunday.







  • I’ve been taking a lot of notes for ~16 years. When you write too many, they become write-only. It’s too difficult to sift through them to find nuggets you can synthesize into something else. I’ve tried structuring my notes after writing them, but this becomes remarkably time consuming and difficult to do unless you are extremely diligent about how frequently you do it.

    You’ve got to structure your notes as you write them, and LogSeq makes this easy.

    I still take a lot of notes via “Note to self” in a messaging app; I don’t use the LogSeq mobile app because of some opinions I have around syncing (if you pay, you can sync, but I want full ownership of my notes and to trust that they are private). However it’s just a copy-and-paste for me, because I’ve got my hashtag structure figured out mostly.

    I have a few tips for new users:

    Use hashtags - but not indiscriminately.

    It might take you some time to find the “themes” of your notes, before you’ve really wrapped your head around it you might just pepper hashtags everywhere. Eventually it becomes pretty clear. Use them diligently and later when you get fancy with search and queries you’ll be glad you did.

    Don’t write massive blocks.

    Separate larger thoughts in the outliner - sub-thoughts, parallel thoughts. Make child blocks. Remember that child blocks inherent the tags of their parent blocks, so don’t repeat tags in child blocks or the search results will get messy. When you come to a conclusion, hide your evidence and reasoning under your conclusion for future reference.

    Finally,

    Journal!

    I am very glad I’ve been journalling for so long. I wish I had done it more. Every now and then I go back to old journal entries and revisit the me of the past, and the problems I had. I can reflect on them, add amendments, and essentially have a conversation with myself through time. It is remarkably valuable.

    My opinion on obsidian

    I’ve used obsidian a bit. It is much more polished and so are the plugins. However, the long-form structure it promotes loses out on the second piece of advice I wrote above: don’t write massive blocks. In my opinion, it is much easier to synthesize something later with your notes when you have structured them in an outlier format that is backed by a true graph structure with searchable parent/child relationships. It’s more like how your brain works, and if you’re using this as a second brain that’s important.