I highly doubt that WWIII will happen (within the next few years), however I forsee the next several years to not be peacful. There will be several (regional/civil) despites that will most likley occur and the chances of any of them escalating is highly unlikley. Here are the conflicts I forsee:
Continued Syrian Civil War: wont be pretty but escalation is unlikely
Palestinian occupation: Will absolutely continue to be horrific but none of the neighboring Arab counties care enough to escalate (or risk US aid)
Russia/Ukraine war: Russia will get some territory and thats about it, probrally just the Russian majority areas. After that the EU will intimidate Russia to back off.
India/China border dispute: They’ll make a lot of noise, actural fighting is unlikely
US/Canada/Mexico/Greenland conflict: Who knows tbh, most likley Trump is running off his mouth as always
China/Taiwan: I severly doubt it, in addition the US is moving microchip manufacturing to the US so strategic value may loosen
Worst case scenario here is a full blown war between the EU and Russia, the US likley wont get involved (Trump doesnt care about Europe) and neither will China (both counties might send aid respectively). It would probrally end with Russia surrendering followed by them loosing no land and maybe a regime change plus some political reforms.
Russia/Ukraine war: Russia will get some territory and thats about it, probrally just the Russian majority areas. After that the EU will intimidate Russia to back off.
How do you imagine the EU will do that exactly? The EU has no military industrial capacity to speak of, it doesn’t have access to cheap energy, and it’s becoming politically unstable. A far more likely scenario here is that the EU starts breaking up, and nationalist parties start realigning their countries towards Russia because the US will leave EU to hang.
It’s a highly unlikely scenario that Russia would want to expand the war pat Ukraine, and everybody with a functioning brain understands that. What will happen is that Russia will take over all the territory in Ukraine that’s either pro Russian or neutral.
The rest will be left as a problem for the west to deal with. It’s going to be a dysfunctional rump state that’s not economically self sufficient, and where there will be massive resentment towards the west over the betrayal. If Europe allows it to fall then they will be faced with a new refugee crisis, and if they don’t then it’s an economic black hole that they have to keep pouring money into. Either scenario will only make the already desperate economic situation in Europe even worse than it is now.
It’s going to be easy for Russia to make deals with individual countries as public unrest in Europe continues to grow. Hungary and Slovakia have already flipped to Russia, it’s likely only a matter of time before Romania, Czech Republic, Germany, and France do as well. At that point we’re looking at the end of EU, and possibly the end of NATO as well. Especially given that the US will almost certainly be pulling back under Trump.
Russia/Ukraine war: Russia will get some territory and thats about it, probrally just the Russian majority areas. After that the EU will intimidate Russia to back off.
This is one may cool down. Definitely would not have under Harris. This is the big ww3 fear.
India/China border dispute: They’ll make a lot of noise, actural fighting is unlikely
They have resolved their territorial dispute, or at least made a major agreement that mostly resolves it.
I highly doubt that WWIII will happen (within the next few years), however I forsee the next several years to not be peacful. There will be several (regional/civil) despites that will most likley occur and the chances of any of them escalating is highly unlikley. Here are the conflicts I forsee:
Worst case scenario here is a full blown war between the EU and Russia, the US likley wont get involved (Trump doesnt care about Europe) and neither will China (both counties might send aid respectively). It would probrally end with Russia surrendering followed by them loosing no land and maybe a regime change plus some political reforms.
How do you imagine the EU will do that exactly? The EU has no military industrial capacity to speak of, it doesn’t have access to cheap energy, and it’s becoming politically unstable. A far more likely scenario here is that the EU starts breaking up, and nationalist parties start realigning their countries towards Russia because the US will leave EU to hang.
I would imagine that if Russian agression continues than nationalist parties would loose steam
It’s a highly unlikely scenario that Russia would want to expand the war pat Ukraine, and everybody with a functioning brain understands that. What will happen is that Russia will take over all the territory in Ukraine that’s either pro Russian or neutral.
The rest will be left as a problem for the west to deal with. It’s going to be a dysfunctional rump state that’s not economically self sufficient, and where there will be massive resentment towards the west over the betrayal. If Europe allows it to fall then they will be faced with a new refugee crisis, and if they don’t then it’s an economic black hole that they have to keep pouring money into. Either scenario will only make the already desperate economic situation in Europe even worse than it is now.
It’s going to be easy for Russia to make deals with individual countries as public unrest in Europe continues to grow. Hungary and Slovakia have already flipped to Russia, it’s likely only a matter of time before Romania, Czech Republic, Germany, and France do as well. At that point we’re looking at the end of EU, and possibly the end of NATO as well. Especially given that the US will almost certainly be pulling back under Trump.
This is one may cool down. Definitely would not have under Harris. This is the big ww3 fear.
They have resolved their territorial dispute, or at least made a major agreement that mostly resolves it.